Showing posts with label Machinery is Evil. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Machinery is Evil. Show all posts

Saturday, May 30, 2015

TECHNOLOGY vis-a-vis PRODUCTIVITY

Technology  does not  guarantee efficiency in productivity, ie Productivity Increase

Technology  dulls human capacity for creative work,  it  increases wastage  and in overall terms it  decreases  productivity.

Technology  certainly helps in the concentration of economic wealth, at the cost of many !!!!!

Gandhian Economic Thinking is  evergreen !!!.

http://www.thehindu.com/todays-paper/tp-opinion/the-big-meh/article7253081.ece

The big meh


  • PAUL KRUGMAN

Remember Douglas Adams’ 1979 novel The Hitchhiker’s Guide to the Galaxy ? It began with some technology snark, dismissing Earth as a planet whose life-forms “are so amazingly primitive that they still think digital watches are a pretty neat idea.” But that was then, in the early stages of the information technology revolution.

Since then we’ve moved on to much more significant things, so much so that the big technology idea of 2015, so far, is a digital watch. But this one tells you to stand up if you’ve been sitting too long!

OK, I’m snarking, too. But there is a real question here. Everyone knows that we live in an era of incredibly rapid technological change, which is changing everything. But what if what everyone knows is wrong? And I’m not being wildly contrarian here. A growing number of economists, looking at the data on productivity and incomes, are wondering if the technological revolution has been greatly overhyped — and some technologists share their concern.

We’ve been here before. The Hitchhiker’s Guide was published during the era of the “productivity paradox,” a two-decade-long period during which technology seemed to be advancing rapidly — personal computing, cell phones, local area networks and the early stages of the Internet — yet economic growth was sluggish and incomes stagnant. Many hypotheses were advanced to explain that paradox, with the most popular probably being that inventing a technology and learning to use it effectively aren’t the same thing. Give it time, said economic historians, and computers will eventually deliver the goods (and services).

This optimism seemed vindicated when productivity growth finally took off circa 1995. Progress was back — and so was America, which seemed to be at the cutting edge of the revolution.

But a funny thing happened on the way to the techno-revolution. We did not, it turned out, get a sustained return to rapid economic progress. Instead, it was more of a one-time spurt, which sputtered out around a decade ago. Since then, we’ve been living in an era of iPhones and iPads and iDontKnows, but even if you adjust for the effects of financial crisis, growth and trends in income have reverted to the sluggishness that characterised the 1970s and 1980s.

In other words, at this point, the whole digital era, spanning more than four decades, is looking like a disappointment. New technologies have yielded great headlines, but modest economic results. Why?

One possibility is that the numbers are missing the reality, especially the benefits of new products and services. I get a lot of pleasure from technology that lets me watch streamed performances by my favourite musicians, but that doesn’t get counted in GDP. Still, new technology is supposed to serve businesses as well as consumers, and should be boosting the production of traditional as well as new goods. The big productivity gains of the period from 1995 to 2005 came largely in things like inventory control, and showed up as much or more in nontechnology businesses like retail as in high-technology industries themselves. Nothing like that is happening now.

Another possibility is that new technologies are more fun than fundamental. Peter Thiel, one of the founders of PayPal, famously remarked that we wanted flying cars but got 140 characters instead. And he’s not alone in suggesting that information technology that excites the Twittering classes may not be a big deal for the economy as a whole.

So what do I think is going on with technology? The answer is that I don’t know — but neither does anyone else. Maybe my friends at Google are right, and Big Data will soon transform everything. Maybe 3-D printing will bring the information revolution into the material world. Or maybe we’re on track for another big meh.

What I’m pretty sure about, however, is that we ought to scale back the hype.

You see, writing and talking breathlessly about how technology changes everything might seem harmless, but, in practice, it acts as a distraction from more mundane issues — and an excuse for handling those issues badly. If you go back to the 1930s, you find many influential people saying the same kinds of things such people say nowadays: This isn’t really about the business cycle, never mind debates about macroeconomic policy; it’s about radical technological change and a workforce that lacks the skills to deal with the new era.

And then, thanks to World War II, we finally got the demand boost we needed, and all those supposedly unqualified workers — not to mention Rosie the Riveter — turned out to be quite useful in the modern economy, if given a chance.

Of course, there I go, invoking history. Don’t I understand that everything is different now? Well, I understand why people like to say that. But that doesn’t make it true. — © New York Times News Service


The digital era, spanning more than four decades, looks disappointing. New technologies have yielded great headlines, but modest economic results

Sunday, March 15, 2015

The Luddites are right !!- They are echoing Indian theory of Karma, without its real knowledge !!!!!

http://www.thehindu.com/opinion/op-ed/the-luddites-might-have-been-right/article6991180.ece

In the coming years, some jobs could disappear faster than others. India has to start wondering what to make of the coming technology world

Quite early in his 2012 book ‘Robots will steal your job, but that’s ok,’ author Federico Pistono presents an idea known to supporters of technology as ‘The Luddite Fallacy.’ A reference to angry English textile workers in the early 19th century who protested against imminent job losses by breaking knitting machines and other labour-saving innovations, the term is used to imply that Luddites (or those who fear technology) have got it all wrong. What it suggests, rather, is that new technology creates more jobs than it destroys. So, don’t fret.
For a long time, including a good part of the era of computers and the Internet, this argument seemed difficult to counter. Not anymore. It may have run its course, as Mr. Pistono acknowledges later in the book. And this could dramatically change the way the world functions.
Here’s some data. Technology research firm Gartner predicts software, robots and smart machines will take over one out of three jobs in another 10 years. Futurist Thomas Frey predicted a few years back that two billion jobs, half the total, will disappear by 2030.
Jobs are vulnerable
Shocking? A layman could well remember 1997, the year IBM’s Deep Blue defeated world chess champion Garry Kasparov and gave the world a glimpse of what technology is capable of. If a computer was outwitting the best of grandmasters at chess, no activity involving the intellect was going to be beyond it. And sure enough, today, all human jobs seem vulnerable. Four years back, another of IBM’s inventions, Watson, beat two champions of the quiz show ‘Jeopardy,’ which the New York Timesreported about with the lines “In the end, the humans on “Jeopardy!” surrendered meekly.” Watson-like bots abound now. For instance, if you are right now reading an Associated Press report on an earnings performance of a U.S. company, there is a good chance that it has been put together not by a journalist in flesh and blood but by a bot. The 169-year-old wire news agency last year tied up with eight-year-old, North Carolina-based Automated Insights, whose patented platform automatically turns financial data into stories. Voila!
By no means is Automated Insights the only journalism-disrupting game around. One of its more famous rivals is Narrative Science, whose co-founder believes it won’t be long before a storytelling computer programme wins a Pulitzer Prize.
Then, there is the ‘robot scientist’ Eve which promises to make drug discovery faster and cheaper. To its credit, Eve has already spotted a compound that can be used to fight malaria.
We aren’t forgetting the so-called creative jobs here. And no, they aren’t immune to the tech onslaught, as a viral video by YouTube channel CGP Grey showed last year. The video, titled ‘Humans Need Not Apply,’ brought forth the man versus machine theme, revealing toward the end that its background score was done by a bot.
If software can do journalism, compose music, discover drugs, win a quiz, drive cars, and do many other things that earlier were impossible without a human, what does it say about the coming job market? Those who believe that’s a worrying question include venture capitalist Vinod Khosla and even an artificial intelligence expert such as Andrew Ng, chief scientist at Chinese Internet giant Baidu.
Columbia University’s Jeffrey Sachs, along with Boston University’s Seth Benzell, Laurence Kotlikoff and Guillermo LaGarda, have dealt with this issue in their February 2015 study ‘Robots are Us: Some Economics of Human Replacement.’ One of the fallouts of the coming in of smart machines, they note, is “a long-run decline in labour share of income.” And the report sounds a warning, indicating that in the absence of policy that redistributes from winners to losers, “smart machines can mean long-term misery for all.”
Other experts have visualised an emerging world of economic lopsidedness, where technological adoption and use could create a few big winners and many big losers. This is what could happen if someone successfully builds and markets an automated system, which while helping its maker reap handsome profits also puts many, many people out of jobs.
The Indian scenario
As always, it will be argued that India, not being a developed economy, can breathe easy. Yes, the pace of adoption of technology might be relatively slower here than in advanced economies. And yes, it is difficult to imagine driverless cars buzzing around here anytime soon. But it is important to appreciate how India Inc, the organised job-giver, has already taken well to automation.
Auto companies, for instance, have over the years increasingly used robotics, which they have found to be more cost-efficient and less problematic than labour in the long run. IT companies now are betting on automation to deal with a lot of routine stuff. Machine learning, by which software systems learn to make decisions based on data, will only make this significantly better.
In the coming years, some jobs could disappear faster than others. India, where income inequalities are already large, has to start wondering what to make of the coming technology world. For, the Luddites may be finally right.
sriram.srinivasan@thehindu.co.in
Keywords: Luddite Fallacysoftware industryjob industry

  • Ishan Ishan  
    If machines give us all the labour, there will be no such thing as labour cost, and there won't be any inflation due to increase in labour costs. Prices of manufactured products will get much much lower. We may even get products for free, because all we would need is natural resources.
    Points
    9920
    a day ago ·   (0) ·   (1) ·  reply (1) · 
    • Suguna  
      That is a ridiculous argument. There will be inflation because the natural resources are not free.
      a day ago ·   (0) ·   (0) ·  reply (1) · 
      • Ishan Ishan  
        There are a lot of reasons for inflation, labour-cost is just one of them, and the labour-cost factor will certainly be eliminated if all the labour comes from machines. Natural resources are free because they are found in nature for free, but they are not available to us for free since labour is required to make them available to us. Please note that we are discussing a hypothetical situation.
        a day ago ·   (0) ·   (0) ·  reply (0) · 
    • Ramesh  
      Don't become so panic ,man is creative creature ,without his creativity so much progress possible?Am optimist future will very bright future generation they become more smart then us .History tilling us that Luddites always grumble when new technology emerged in society.
      Points
      705
      a day ago ·   (0) ·   (0) ·  reply (0) · 
      • PA  
        Humans are Change agents, can only transform from one State to another State, Humans cannot Create like the "The Creator", If they want to build a "Car", they need to do a lot of R&D, Testing, Optimizing, make a lot of Waste that Harms the Environment. Manufacturing produces Waste, it harms the Envirnoment, etc, Computers, & IT Industry destroys the envirnoment, making Computers, keeping them running needs Energy, you need Non clean energy to run them. The Javascript you are writing now, needs your Computers to be On, all is linked Environmental degradation. You were put on this Planet, God has the right to take you off the Planet. Its not just your Planet, It belongs to all Life. If you dont have the Wisdom to be part of Nature, respect Nature, its time you went extinct. Extinct you will go.
        Points
        435
        a day ago ·   (0) ·   (0) ·  reply (0) · 
        • N.Chellappa  
          Automation replaces human labour with energy driven machines. With both the population of the globe and the rate of consumption of energy and materials rising unabatedly there is bound to be point at which the present day civilization would collapse like a house of cards. It is for energy that the wars in the gulf are dragging on. As days go there will be wars for many more rare materials on which the present day civilization of intolerable level of consumption rests.
          Points
          685
          a day ago ·   (2) ·   (0) ·  reply (0) · 
          • Ind Yeah  from Selden
            We shouldnt stop advancing. Instead of fearing for jobs.. govt should start population control
            2 days ago ·   (0) ·   (1) ·  reply (0) · 
            • Mitra  from Ningbo
              It is quite pathetic to have such an article published in a top national newspaper. The Luddites have been wrong for the last 250 years and will continue to be so.
              Points
              145
              2 days ago ·   (2) ·   (0) ·  reply (0) · 
              • R S  from Elur
                If the IT industry loses a lot of jobs, engineering graduates may have to work in the area they studied in college. That might not be a bad thing for society.
                Points
                155
                2 days ago ·   (0) ·   (0) ·  reply (0) · 
                • Gopinathan  from Bangalore
                  The only solution appears to be creation of social security systems that ensures no one starves, or suffers for want of shelter or healthcare, or is denied the education that helps a person appreciate the finer things of life. "Redistribution from winners to losers" as the article mentions. Ignoring reality by invoking platitudes is not going to make it go away
                  2 days ago ·   (0) ·   (0) ·  reply (0) · 
                  • Csha Nambiar  from Bangalore
                    Are we beginning to fear our own capabilities for creation? Maybe its a good thing that soon people may not have to do anything at all and can spend time in meditation (that is if we do not create the technology to wipe out the human race because some nut job is sure to use it) :P
                    Points
                    175
                    2 days ago ·   (0) ·   (0) ·  reply (0) · 
                    • Ravishankar  from Bangalore
                      As per this article, , which talks about Polanyi's paradox related to the subject matter above. If you read the article carefully, there will be some impact on the jobs as we know today in the near future. Economies and workforce need to adjust and adapt in the future.
                      2 days ago ·   (2) ·   (0) ·  reply (0) · 
                      • ANAND KUMAR  from Delhi
                        Pace of tech development and it's adoption by society and larger world is only about timing. Ultimately all have Have to concede this that quality and cost of goods and services can not be left to crude labour In present competitive scenario. Scare of job loss is I'll founded as job are just redistributed and not lost altogether. India, like any other progressive nation have to embrace proven and emerging technologies otherwise we are bound to enter into an era of slavery of patented technologies of west.
                        2 days ago ·   (0) ·   (0) ·  reply (0) · 
                        • Gopal  from Boston
                          For the last 60 years the Luddites have been wrong but they have controlled the Indian agenda (remember the labor intensive vs capital intensive debates). So what the writer is saying is that we should continue down that same foolish path that has brought so much misery on India.
                          Points
                          2850
                          2 days ago ·   (0) ·   (0) ·  reply (0) · 
                          • Kvrao  from Annandale
                            The good thing is as the old jobs disappear new jobs gets created. Otherwise, both Robots and humans will be without jobs. No worries!
                            Points
                            745
                            2 days ago ·   (0) ·   (0) ·  reply (0) · 

                          Monday, May 6, 2013

                          MACHINERY IS EVIL !!!! - Gandhiji. -KARMA /WORK ANALYSIS !



                          Introduction.
                          Work extracted through Machinery is evil. That is why modern society is caught in the quagmire of EVIL, since machines of all kinds are extensively used.  The West  addresses  this problem  of doing away with  social evils, with  technology and more and more machines.  Eg. The equipments for security and  surveillance and the ubiquitous  camera that you see everywhere. But then the problems do not vanish and it redounds with multiple and complex negative effects, threatening biological life on this planet . Thus it  is evident that the WEST does not fully comprehend the  human  spiritual, mental and physical constitution, essential for  devising  effective and long-lasting solutions conducive to peaceful living and happiness.  Their incomplete knowledge  of human nature & processes prevents them from conceiving  BENIGN Management /Work  Theories and Practices, essential for harmonious living. The deficiency of the West stems from its lack of understanding of the COSMIC process. Their Cosmology is weak and erroneous.

                          A chunk of modern machines run on electricity. Though businessmen and management experts consider the  chronic power shortage in Tamil Nadu  to be a bane, it  should be considered as a boon in disguise. People are inadvertently being conditioned to reduce power dependency and thus are weaned away from machinery.

                          Western Machinery Fetishism

                          In  the blog-posting  'PAUL & THE RIGHT TO BE LAZY' , it had been pointed out that Paul Lafrague had blundered badly, in advocating more and more industrial machinery to rescue the working class from drudgery.  Further  he had advocated the duration of work to be limited to  maximum three or four hours a day. And to  dispense off with manual labour  he  suggested the desirability of inventing more and more machinery. This was in the year 1883.

                           In 1908, Gandhiji  wrote  The Hind Swaraj, a very fundamental work  , touching  all aspects  required of  peaceful national living.  In 1921, in  the foreword to a  later edition of the book ,  Gandhiji has said that the book was written  “in answer  to the Indian School of violence  and its prototype  in South Africa” (The full text of 'A Word of Explanation' by Gandhiji is provided in the scanned images in the blog-post).  According to Lord Lothian, a Britisher,  what Gandhiji was trying to teach India and the world “now lay in the germ in that little book which deserved to be read and re-read in order to understand Gandhiji properly”. One chapter of Hind Swaraj addresses the 'evils' due to machinery.

                          TO THE ‘MODERN’ WORLD GANDHIJI PRESENTED ‘MODERN’ ARGUMENTS AGAINST MACHINERY.

                          Gandhiji was not advancing naïve  arguments against MACHINERY. His reasonings against Machinery  are sound, and today we  experience  that, it had withstood the tests of TIME.  Gandhiji  appeared very candid, when he said that “the impetus behind  it  all(machinery) is not the philanthropy to save labour, but GREED.”   Paul Lafarge also desired  more and more machinery for rescuing humans from drudgery (saving labour) without worrying about its negative consequences. But  Gandhiji  is  more  pragmatic  with his total understanding of  human nature . Further  it was Gandhiji’s caution that machinery will help concentrate the wealth in the hands of a few. This is very conspicuous today, and  frequently we read in the media  about the trillionaires list and the FORTUNE 500 companies.

                          Gandhiji also believed that machinery will atrophy the limbs of man, and will encroach upon his individuality. This aspect of machinery we are experiencing constantly, in our daily life. Not only our limbs, but our intellectual  faculties are atrophied. Our privacies are invaded and personalities distorted. The machines are ruling our life, in our house as well as in the work-place  For primary needs of man  like food and clothing (ploughshare and needle ,spinning wheel and sewing machine)  Gandhiji was agreeable  to  the usage of limited machinery.
                           








                          ULTIMATE VIEW ABOUT MACHINERY & GITA  18 : 11

                          Gandhiji   likens his body to a most delicate piece of machinery. At a very personal level, as a Indian, he understands that the body stands in the way of  salvation, ie absolute liberation of the soul.  Gita 18:11 states that One who is in embodied form cannot fully dispense away with KARMA (action/momement/work).  And  Gita 18:48 , says that all KARMAS have negative side-effects,  the degree of NEGATIVITY depending on the KARMA, ie. good or bad.  Non-karma, ie perfect stillness represents the state of Moksha. Negative-karma ie Vikarma generates Vasanas or tendencies, which will lead to further karma. Whereas positive ( as per shastras) karmas burns up one’s  karma-generating-vasanas from this life as well as previous lives, helping in advancing in the steps towards liberation.

                          This above tallies with  Gandhiji’s constant refrain that one cannot  or it is IMPOSSIBLE  for one to realize perfect Truth and Ahimsa, so long as one is imprisoned in this mortal frame.  Gandhiji  had fully understood the MATHEMATICAL  EQUATION provided by the Gita  with respect to realization of perfect Truth and Ahimsa. Once again consider Gita 18: 11 & 48. Embodiment =Body =Karma=Negative Consequences.  Gandhiji had equated the body to a delicate machinery. Body=Machine=Karma=Negative  effects (karma-bandham), which hinders the liberation of the soul. If body itself is  a hindrance, what about Machines, which mostly  contributes to increase in NEGATIVE  KARMA in GEOMETRIC PROPORTION. ? Today the world is in the grip of excessive negative karma, facilitated by MACHINERY of all kinds. Any thinking and feeling person cannot totally ignore this fact !!

                          Like our body , Gandhiji says that Machines are inevitable and is a NECESSARY EVIL.  Neverthless all should strive for transcendence. That means first we have to limit the use of  Machinery and totally dispense with it. This  will ultimately prove to be good for the individual as well as society/nations. This  represents  SANE Management /Work  practice.
                                                                 ---------------------------------

                          Quotes  from the book ‘The Hind-Swaraj  about Machinery & Scanned Text --(References)

                          GANDHIJI "IDEALLY , I WOULD RULE OUT ALL MACHINERY........
                          In the ‘PREFACE TO THE NEW EDITION’  published in 1938, there is a conversation recorded, that happened  between Gandhiji and a 'questioner'. (Pages 74 and 75, scanned pages provided). This was his response about machinery " Ideally, I would rule out all machinery, even as I would reject this very body, which is not helpful for salvation, and seek the absolute liberation of the soul. From that point of view I would reject  all machinery, but machines will remain because, like the body, they are inevitable.  The body itself , as I  told you, is the purest piece of mechanism; but if it is a hindrance to the highest flights of the soul, it has to be rejected." (p.75)

                          Further, in A WORD OF EXPLANATION written by Gandhiji himself  for the 1921 edition of Hind Swaraj   his views about MACHINERY were  ".................I am not aiming at destroying  railways or hospitals, though I would certainly welcome their natural destruction. Neither railways  nor hospitals are a test of a high  and pure civilization. At best they are a necessary evil. Neither  adds one inch to the moral stature of a nation. Nor am I aiming at a permanent destruction of law courts, much as I regard it as a 'consummation devoutly  to be wished'. Still less am I trying  to destroy all machinery and mills. It requires a higher simplicity and renunciation than the people are today prepared for."

                          Chapter XIX of THE HIND-SWARAJ is titled  MACHINERY.

                          Quote "When I read Mr.Dutt's  Economic History of India, I wept; and as I think of it again my heart sickens. It is machinery  that has impoverished India. It is difficult to measure the harm that Manchester has done to us. It is due to Manchester that Indian handicraft  has all but disappeared......

                          .........Machinery  has begun to desolate Europe.  Ruination is  now knocking at the English gates, Machinery  is the chief symbol of modern civilization ; it represents a great sin.

                          The workers  in the mills of Bombay have become slaves. The condition of the women working in the mills is shocking. When there were no mills, these women were not starving. If the machinery craze grows in our country, it will become an unhappy land...........

                          Reader: Are the mills, then to be closed down ?

                          Editor (Gandhiji) : That is difficult. It is no easy task  to do  away with a thing that is established. We, therefore say  the the non-beginning of a  thing  is supreme wisdom. (Is Gandhiji considering 'Sarvarambha-parithyagi' of Gita 12:16 &  14:25 !!??)...............

                          ........Machinery is like a snake-hole which may contain from one to a hundred snakes. ..........I cannot recall a single good point in connection with machinery.
                          ..Do not, therefore, forget the main thing. It is  necessary to realize that machinery is bad. We shall then be able gradually to do away with it. Nature has not provided any way whereby we may reach a desired goal all of a sudden. If, instead of welcoming  machinery as a boon, we should look upon it as an evil, it would ultimately go.