http://www.thehindu.com/opinion/op-ed/the-luddites-might-have-been-right/article6991180.ece
In the coming years, some jobs could disappear faster than others. India has to start wondering what to make of the coming technology world
Quite early in his 2012 book ‘Robots will steal your job, but that’s ok,’ author Federico Pistono presents an idea known to supporters of technology as ‘The Luddite Fallacy.’ A reference to angry English textile workers in the early 19th century who protested against imminent job losses by breaking knitting machines and other labour-saving innovations, the term is used to imply that Luddites (or those who fear technology) have got it all wrong. What it suggests, rather, is that new technology creates more jobs than it destroys. So, don’t fret.
For a long time, including a good part of the era of computers and the Internet, this argument seemed difficult to counter. Not anymore. It may have run its course, as Mr. Pistono acknowledges later in the book. And this could dramatically change the way the world functions.
Here’s some data. Technology research firm Gartner predicts software, robots and smart machines will take over one out of three jobs in another 10 years. Futurist Thomas Frey predicted a few years back that two billion jobs, half the total, will disappear by 2030.
Jobs are vulnerable
Shocking? A layman could well remember 1997, the year IBM’s Deep Blue defeated world chess champion Garry Kasparov and gave the world a glimpse of what technology is capable of. If a computer was outwitting the best of grandmasters at chess, no activity involving the intellect was going to be beyond it. And sure enough, today, all human jobs seem vulnerable. Four years back, another of IBM’s inventions, Watson, beat two champions of the quiz show ‘Jeopardy,’ which the New York Timesreported about with the lines “In the end, the humans on “Jeopardy!” surrendered meekly.” Watson-like bots abound now. For instance, if you are right now reading an Associated Press report on an earnings performance of a U.S. company, there is a good chance that it has been put together not by a journalist in flesh and blood but by a bot. The 169-year-old wire news agency last year tied up with eight-year-old, North Carolina-based Automated Insights, whose patented platform automatically turns financial data into stories. Voila!
By no means is Automated Insights the only journalism-disrupting game around. One of its more famous rivals is Narrative Science, whose co-founder believes it won’t be long before a storytelling computer programme wins a Pulitzer Prize.
Then, there is the ‘robot scientist’ Eve which promises to make drug discovery faster and cheaper. To its credit, Eve has already spotted a compound that can be used to fight malaria.
We aren’t forgetting the so-called creative jobs here. And no, they aren’t immune to the tech onslaught, as a viral video by YouTube channel CGP Grey showed last year. The video, titled ‘Humans Need Not Apply,’ brought forth the man versus machine theme, revealing toward the end that its background score was done by a bot.
If software can do journalism, compose music, discover drugs, win a quiz, drive cars, and do many other things that earlier were impossible without a human, what does it say about the coming job market? Those who believe that’s a worrying question include venture capitalist Vinod Khosla and even an artificial intelligence expert such as Andrew Ng, chief scientist at Chinese Internet giant Baidu.
Columbia University’s Jeffrey Sachs, along with Boston University’s Seth Benzell, Laurence Kotlikoff and Guillermo LaGarda, have dealt with this issue in their February 2015 study ‘Robots are Us: Some Economics of Human Replacement.’ One of the fallouts of the coming in of smart machines, they note, is “a long-run decline in labour share of income.” And the report sounds a warning, indicating that in the absence of policy that redistributes from winners to losers, “smart machines can mean long-term misery for all.”
Other experts have visualised an emerging world of economic lopsidedness, where technological adoption and use could create a few big winners and many big losers. This is what could happen if someone successfully builds and markets an automated system, which while helping its maker reap handsome profits also puts many, many people out of jobs.
The Indian scenario
As always, it will be argued that India, not being a developed economy, can breathe easy. Yes, the pace of adoption of technology might be relatively slower here than in advanced economies. And yes, it is difficult to imagine driverless cars buzzing around here anytime soon. But it is important to appreciate how India Inc, the organised job-giver, has already taken well to automation.
Auto companies, for instance, have over the years increasingly used robotics, which they have found to be more cost-efficient and less problematic than labour in the long run. IT companies now are betting on automation to deal with a lot of routine stuff. Machine learning, by which software systems learn to make decisions based on data, will only make this significantly better.
In the coming years, some jobs could disappear faster than others. India, where income inequalities are already large, has to start wondering what to make of the coming technology world. For, the Luddites may be finally right.
sriram.srinivasan@thehindu.co.in
Keywords: Luddite Fallacy, software industry, job industry
- Ishan IshanIf machines give us all the labour, there will be no such thing as labour cost, and there won't be any inflation due to increase in labour costs. Prices of manufactured products will get much much lower. We may even get products for free, because all we would need is natural resources.a day ago · (0) · (1) · reply (1) ·Points9920
- SugunaThat is a ridiculous argument. There will be inflation because the natural resources are not free.a day ago · (0) · (0) · reply (1) ·
Ishan Ishan There are a lot of reasons for inflation, labour-cost is just one of them, and the labour-cost factor will certainly be eliminated if all the labour comes from machines. Natural resources are free because they are found in nature for free, but they are not available to us for free since labour is required to make them available to us. Please note that we are discussing a hypothetical situation.a day ago · (0) · (0) · reply (0) ·
- Ramesh
Don't become so panic ,man is creative creature ,without his creativity so much progress possible?Am optimist future will very bright future generation they become more smart then us .History tilling us that Luddites always grumble when new technology emerged in society.a day ago · (0) · (0) · reply (0) ·Points705
- PA
Humans are Change agents, can only transform from one State to another State, Humans cannot Create like the "The Creator", If they want to build a "Car", they need to do a lot of R&D, Testing, Optimizing, make a lot of Waste that Harms the Environment. Manufacturing produces Waste, it harms the Envirnoment, etc, Computers, & IT Industry destroys the envirnoment, making Computers, keeping them running needs Energy, you need Non clean energy to run them. The Javascript you are writing now, needs your Computers to be On, all is linked Environmental degradation. You were put on this Planet, God has the right to take you off the Planet. Its not just your Planet, It belongs to all Life. If you dont have the Wisdom to be part of Nature, respect Nature, its time you went extinct. Extinct you will go.a day ago · (0) · (0) · reply (0) ·Points435
- N.Chellappa
Automation replaces human labour with energy driven machines. With both the population of the globe and the rate of consumption of energy and materials rising unabatedly there is bound to be point at which the present day civilization would collapse like a house of cards. It is for energy that the wars in the gulf are dragging on. As days go there will be wars for many more rare materials on which the present day civilization of intolerable level of consumption rests.a day ago · (2) · (0) · reply (0) ·Points685
- Gopinathan from Bangalore
The only solution appears to be creation of social security systems that ensures no one starves, or suffers for want of shelter or healthcare, or is denied the education that helps a person appreciate the finer things of life. "Redistribution from winners to losers" as the article mentions. Ignoring reality by invoking platitudes is not going to make it go away2 days ago · (0) · (0) · reply (0) ·
Csha Nambiar from Bangalore
Are we beginning to fear our own capabilities for creation? Maybe its a good thing that soon people may not have to do anything at all and can spend time in meditation (that is if we do not create the technology to wipe out the human race because some nut job is sure to use it) :P2 days ago · (0) · (0) · reply (0) ·Points175
- Ravishankar from Bangalore
As per this article, , which talks about Polanyi's paradox related to the subject matter above. If you read the article carefully, there will be some impact on the jobs as we know today in the near future. Economies and workforce need to adjust and adapt in the future.2 days ago · (2) · (0) · reply (0) ·
- ANAND KUMAR from Delhi
Pace of tech development and it's adoption by society and larger world is only about timing. Ultimately all have Have to concede this that quality and cost of goods and services can not be left to crude labour In present competitive scenario. Scare of job loss is I'll founded as job are just redistributed and not lost altogether. India, like any other progressive nation have to embrace proven and emerging technologies otherwise we are bound to enter into an era of slavery of patented technologies of west.2 days ago · (0) · (0) · reply (0) ·
- Gopal from Boston
For the last 60 years the Luddites have been wrong but they have controlled the Indian agenda (remember the labor intensive vs capital intensive debates). So what the writer is saying is that we should continue down that same foolish path that has brought so much misery on India.2 days ago · (0) · (0) · reply (0) ·Points2850
Ishan Ishan 